Africa's debt crisis is far from monolithic. While three countries remain in catastrophic territory above 100% debt-to-GDP (Sudan, Senegal, Cabo Verde), the continent shows a surprising pattern of divergence. The overall African average is declining from 65.8% (2024) to 60.8% (2026), driven by successful restructurings in Ghana (-14.3pp) and Zimbabwe (-31.5pp).
However, commodity-dependent economies face shocking deterioration: Botswana's debt surged from 29.9% to 44.8% (+14.9pp) as diamond revenues collapsed, while Algeria jumped from 48.1% to 62.2% (+14.2pp) amid an oil crisis. The real danger isn't the total debt stock, it's in debt service, which now consumes 18.7% of Sub-Saharan revenue, triple the 2014 level.
Data Table
Rank | Country | 2024 (%) | 2026 (%) | Change | Trend |
1 | Sudan | 261.4 | 172.4 | -89 | 📉 Improving |
2 | Senegal | 128.4 | 124.3 | -4.1 | 📉 Slight improvement |
3 | Zambia | 114.9 | - | - | No 2026 projection |
4 | Cabo Verde | 111.2 | 101 | -10.2 | 📉 Improving |
5 | Mozambique | 93.2 | 99.9 | 6.7 | 📈 Worsening |
6 | Congo (Rep.) | 98 | 89.9 | -8.1 | 📉 Improving |
7 | Mauritius | 87.9 | 87.4 | -0.5 | ➡️ Stable |
8 | Egypt | 90.9 | 85 | -5.9 | 📉 Improving |
9 | Tunisia | 83.4 | 82.6 | -0.8 | ➡️ Stable |
10 | Gabon | 72.7 | 82 | 9.2 | 📈 Worsening |
11 | South Africa | 76 | 79.5 | 3.5 | 📈 Worsening |
12 | Malawi | 87.6 | 78.3 | -9.3 | 📉 Improving |
13 | Rwanda | 67.2 | 74.8 | 7.6 | 📈 Worsening |
14 | Guinea-Bissau | 82.2 | 74 | -8.2 | 📉 Improving |
15 | Togo | 72.1 | 70.6 | -1.5 | ➡️ Stable |
16 | Kenya | 67.3 | 70.1 | 2.8 | 📈 Slight worsening |
17 | Gambia | 80 | 70 | -10 | 📉 Improving |
18 | Morocco | 67.7 | 66.6 | -1.1 | ➡️ Stable |
19 | Namibia | 67.7 | 63.3 | -4.4 | 📉 Improving |
20 | Angola | 59.9 | 63.2 | 3.3 | 📈 Slight worsening |
21 | Algeria | 48.1 | 62.2 | 14.2 | 📈 SHOCKING RISE |
22 | South Sudan | 50.7 | 60.2 | 9.5 | 📈 Worsening |
23 | Seychelles | 57.6 | 58.4 | 0.8 | ➡️ Stable |
24 | Lesotho | 56.8 | 57.1 | 0.3 | ➡️ Stable |
25 | Ghana | 70.3 | 56.1 | -14.3 | 📉 BIG IMPROVEMENT |
26 | Liberia | 57.2 | 54.2 | -3 | 📉 Improving |
27 | Côte d'Ivoire | 59.3 | 54.1 | -5.2 | 📉 Improving |
28 | Uganda | 51.5 | 53 | 1.5 | 📈 Slight worsening |
29 | Central African Rep. | 60.7 | 52.5 | -8.2 | 📉 Improving |
30 | Burkina Faso | 57.2 | 51.7 | -5.5 | 📉 Improving |
31 | Madagascar | 50.3 | 50.9 | 0.6 | ➡️ Stable |
32 | Benin | 53.4 | 49.6 | -3.8 | 📉 Improving |
33 | Tanzania | 49.9 | 48.3 | -1.6 | ➡️ Stable |
34 | Mali | 51.7 | 48 | -3.7 | 📉 Improving |
35 | Botswana | 29.9 | 44.8 | 14.9 | 📈 SHOCKING RISE |
36 | Eswatini | 39.2 | 43.5 | 4.3 | 📈 Worsening |
37 | Zimbabwe | 73 | 41.6 | -31.5 | 📉 MASSIVE DROP |
38 | Niger | 47.2 | 41.4 | -5.8 | 📉 Improving |
39 | Ethiopia | 32.7 | 41.1 | 8.4 | 📈 Worsening |
40 | Burundi | 52 | 40.9 | -11.1 | 📉 Improving |
41 | Mauritania | 42.8 | 40.6 | -2.2 | 📉 Improving |
42 | Sierra Leone | 41.7 | 38.6 | -3.1 | 📉 Improving |
43 | Guinea | 48.8 | 38.1 | -10.7 | 📉 Improving |
44 | Equatorial Guinea | 36.4 | 38.1 | 1.7 | 📈 Slight worsening |
45 | Cameroon | 42.8 | 36.3 | -6.5 | 📉 Improving |
46 | Nigeria | 39.3 | 35 | -4.3 | 📉 Improving |
47 | Comoros | 32.2 | 32.6 | 0.4 | ➡️ Stable |
48 | Chad | 32.7 | 32.5 | -0.2 | ➡️ Stable |
49 | Djibouti | 32.9 | 28 | -4.9 | 📉 Improving |
50 | Congo (DRC) | 22.5 | 14.6 | -7.9 | 📉 Improving |
51 | Eritrea | - | - | - | No data |
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Primary Data Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Database, October 2025 edition, 2026 projections
Supplementary Sources:
Eurobond maturity data: Central bank reports, Development Reimagined, CBonds (2025)
Country-specific context: IMF Article IV consultations, World Bank Debt Statistics
Methodology: Debt-to-GDP ratios represent general government gross debt as a percentage of nominal GDP, based on IMF October 2025 projections for calendar year 2026. Countries are categorized into four risk bands: <40% (green), 40-69% (yellow/orange), 70-100% (orange), and >100% (red). Gray indicates countries with insufficient IMF data (Libya, Eritrea, Somalia).
Analysis Date: February 2026
LIMITATIONS
Projection Uncertainty: These are IMF projections made in October 2025 for 2026 outcomes. Actual 2026 ratios may differ based on commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, political events, or GDP growth surprises.
Data Gaps: Libya, Eritrea, and Somalia lack reliable IMF projections due to conflict, data availability issues, or non-participation in IMF programs.
Debt Composition Not Shown: The map displays total debt-to-GDP but does not differentiate between domestic vs. external debt, concessional vs. commercial debt, or currency denomination—all critical factors for debt sustainability.
Missing Context on Debt Service: While the ratio shows debt stock, it doesn't capture the more critical metric of debt service-to-revenue, which determines immediate payment capacity. Angola, for example, allocates 70% of government revenue to interest payments despite a "moderate" 63% debt-to-GDP ratio.
Base Effects: Countries like Sudan and Zimbabwe show dramatic "improvements" that reflect GDP volatility and currency instability rather than genuine fiscal recovery. Ratios should be interpreted alongside absolute debt levels and economic fundamentals.
No Hidden Debt: Official statistics may exclude contingent liabilities, state-owned enterprise debt, or undisclosed borrowing (as revealed in Senegal's $11B hidden debt scandal in 2024).
Note: This visualization is designed for general market intelligence purposes and should not be used as the sole basis for investment or policy decisions. For country-specific analysis, consult detailed IMF and World Bank debt sustainability assessments.