Why is Africa Lagging in Solar Installations? Africa's Solar Paradox: 60% of world's best solar resources. 0.5% of global installations.
- Les Africanistes
- Nov 5
- 8 min read
Updated: Nov 17
Africa loses $100 billion annually to power outages, according to World Bank estimates. Nigeria's grid collapsed 12 times in 2024. Seven African countries face blackouts over 200 days per year.
Meanwhile, Africa receives more sunshine than anywhere on Earth, averaging 3,000+ hours annually. The Sahara Desert alone could theoretically power the entire world.
In 2024, Africa installed just 2.4 gigawatts of new solar capacity, That's 0.5% of global solar installations, the lowest share since 2013. China alone added over 200 gigawatts. China installs Africa's entire accumulated solar capacity every five weeks.
Africa ended 2024 with 19.2 GW of total solar capacity across 54 countries (AFSIA, 2025). For context, that's less solar than China installs in a single month. Solar represents just 3% of Africa's electricity generation despite having 60% of the world's best solar resources, according to the Global Solar Council.
Here's the concentration problem: South Africa and Egypt, just two countries, account for 79% of all African solar installations (AFSIA, 2025). The remaining 52 countries combined installed only 0.7 GW in 2024.
But by mid-2025, something started changing. Africa now has over 10 GW of solar under construction, the largest pipeline in history (AFSIA). Solar panel imports surged 60% in the twelve months to June 2025, reaching 15,032 MW. Twenty countries set new import records. Energy think tank Ember declared in August 2025: "The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa is now here."
This is the story of why it took so long, and what's finally working.
Why is Africa lagging in Solar Installations: The Cost of Capital Problem
The answer isn't complicated: it's capital.
Africa needs $200 billion per year in clean energy investment to achieve energy access and meet climate goals, according to World Bank and African Development Bank estimates. In 2024, Africa received $40 billion, doubled from the previous year, but still only one-fifth of what's required (Global Solar Council, 2025).
That leaves a $160 billion annual gap.
The problem isn't lack of projects or technology. It's that financing solar in Africa costs 3 to 7 times more than in developed countries (Global Solar Council, 2025). A solar project that makes economic sense in Germany becomes financially impossible in Nigeria because of how capital is priced.
Consider the math: The cost of capital in Germany runs 2-3%. In Nigeria, it's 15-20%. That's the same solar panels, same sunshine, same technology, but a 5 to 7 times difference in financing costs. Risk premiums, currency volatility, and weak utility creditworthiness drive up rates to levels that kill most projects before they start.
As Léo Echard, Policy Officer at the Global Solar Council, put it: "There is no shortage of excellent solar resources and political ambition in Africa, only a shortage of affordable capital."
This explains why Africa installs 0.5% of global solar despite having the best resources. The constraint isn't sunshine. It's affordable capital.
What Changed in 2025:
$60 Billion in New Commitments
But 2025 brought something different: the largest wave of committed financing in African solar history.
In January 2025, the African Development Bank and World Bank launched Mission 300 with $58 billion in commitments: $18.2 billion from AfDB and up to $40 billion from the World Bank. The goal: bring electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030.
What makes Mission 300 different from previous initiatives is the integrated approach. It's not just generation. It combines solar deployment with grid infrastructure investment, battery storage, policy reforms, and blended finance models designed to unlock private capital. Twelve countries, including Nigeria, Zambia, and Malawi, have already launched national energy compacts, tailored plans with specific targets and accountability measures.
Then came the mega-projects
1. Egypt is building Africa's largest solar plant:
The Obelisk project, a 1-gigawatt solar farm paired with a 200-megawatt-hour battery storage system. The African Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and British International Investment committed $479 million in financing (AfDB, June 2025). It's scheduled to be operational by the third quarter of 2026 and will generate 2,772 gigawatt-hours of clean energy annually.
But Egypt's ambitions go beyond single projects. The country is building Africa's solar manufacturing capacity. Three factories that will create over 9 gigawatts per year of panel manufacturing capacity: EliTe Solar (3 GW), Sunrev Solar (2 GW), and Masdar (4 GW). This matters because local manufacturing reduces import costs, eliminates currency risk, and builds technical capacity.
2. Algeria, dormant in solar for years, came alive:
The country launched its $3.6 billion Tafouk 1 Mega Solar Project targeting 4 gigawatts across five phases. In just twelve months to June 2025, Algeria's solar panel imports increased 33-fold (Ember, 2025). The target: grow from 500 megawatts in 2020 to 2.9 gigawatts by 2025.
3. Off-grid solar is scaling through new financing models:
British International Investment committed $20 million to Acumen's Hardest-to-Reach Initiative, which has raised $123 million (first close) to bring pay-as-you-go solar to 50 million people across 17 countries including Malawi, Sierra Leone, and Uganda. This matters because it bypasses the grid infrastructure problem entirely, bringing power directly to households and businesses in areas national grids will never reach.
The Evidence of Acceleration
Africa had over 10 gigawatts of solar under construction by mid-2025 (AFSIA).
Solar panel imports reached 15,032 megawatts in the twelve months to June 2025, a 60% increase from the previous year (Ember, 2025).
Twenty countries set new import records.
The Global Solar Council projects 42% growth in African solar installations in 2025, with 18 countries expected to install at least 100 megawatts, compared to just two countries in 2024.
Three Paths Forward: Models That Actually Work
Africa isn't following a single path. Three distinct models are proving viable in different contexts:
Egypt's government-led utility-scale approach represents one path. Large projects of 500 to 1,000 megawatts, financed by development banks with government guarantees, connected to grids that can actually absorb the power. Egypt added 700 megawatts in 2024 (AFSIA), almost all from just two neighboring projects in Kom Ombo. This model works when you have stable regulations, creditworthy government guarantees, and grid infrastructure that functions. It requires significant government fiscal capacity but delivers utility-scale results quickly.
South Africa demonstrates private sector-led deployment. The government removed licensing requirements for private generation under 100 megawatts and allowed "wheeling", private companies selling solar power through the grid, the result: over 5 gigawatts of rooftop solar added in eighteen months. South Africa went from 290 days of load shedding in 2023 to zero days since April 2024. The private sector solved what the state utility couldn't. This model requires legal frameworks for private power sales and grid infrastructure to absorb distributed generation, but it works without government guarantees.
The off-grid blended finance model works where neither utility-scale nor grid-tied systems are viable. Mission 300 and Acumen's Hardest-to-Reach Initiative represent this approach: pay-as-you-go solar for households, mini-grids for communities, commercial systems for businesses. British International Investment's $20 million commitment to Acumen will reach 50 million people across 17 countries. This model bypasses weak grids entirely and works anywhere, even in countries where utility-scale solar is impossible.
The Grid Infrastructure Constraint: Why More Solar Doesn't Always Mean More Power
Here's the uncomfortable reality that Nigeria illustrates: adding solar capacity doesn't automatically solve power crises when grid infrastructure can't deliver that power.
Nigeria added 63.5 megawatts of solar in 2024, bringing total capacity to 385.7 MW (AFSIA). Solar panel imports are growing. The removal of fuel subsidies has made solar competitive against diesel generators. Yet Nigeria's grid still collapsed twelve times in 2024. Power outages continue 258 to 304 days per year. The country loses $6.8 billion annually to blackouts, unchanged despite solar growth.
Solar now represents just 1.6% of Nigeria's energy mix (AFSIA, 2025). Most solar being installed is off-grid or commercial-and-industrial systems that bypass the grid entirely. Businesses are installing rooftop solar with battery storage not to feed the grid, but to escape it.
The reason: Nigeria's grid infrastructure is too weak to absorb or distribute utility-scale solar. As AFSIA notes in its 2025 report: "Countries like Nigeria are not fertile ground for utility-scale solar due to the very poor grid infrastructure. Instead, C&I, mini-grids, and residential solar are the most prevalent forms of solar, with C&I representing the overwhelming majority of the capacity installed."
This reveals a fundamental truth: solar generation doesn't equal reliable power delivery. You need grid infrastructure, transmission lines, distribution networks, and battery storage. Without these, adding solar panels doesn't solve the systemic power crisis, it just creates islands of reliability for those who can afford private systems.
For context, Pakistan, with one-sixth of Africa's population, imported more solar panels in the twelve months to June 2025 than the entire African continent (Ember, 2025). Pakistan's imports tripled in just one year, showing how quickly deployment can scale when the enabling conditions exist.
This is why Mission 300's integrated approach matters. It combines generation with grid infrastructure investment, recognizing that you can't solve one without the other.
The Honest Assessment: Acceleration from a Low Base
So is Africa's solar sector finally taking off?
The answer depends on your baseline.
The acceleration is tangible and measurable. There's now $60 billion in committed financing, over 10 gigawatts under construction (AFSIA). Solar panel imports tripling outside South Africa (Ember, 2025). Manufacturing capacity is being built in Egypt (9+ GW). New financing models are proving viable in off-grid markets. Eighteen countries are scaling up compared to two the year before (Global Solar Council projection).
Battery storage exploded from 50 MWh annually until 2022 to over 1,600 MWh in 2024, a 10-fold increase in one year (AFSIA, 2025). This matters because solar needs storage to provide 24/7 power.
But Africa still installed only 2.4 gigawatts in 2024 while the world installed 400 to 600 gigawatts (Global Solar Council, Ember). That 0.5% global share, despite 60% of the world's best solar resources, tells you the gap isn't closing. It's widening.
The Global Solar Council projects Africa will add an additional 23 gigawatts by 2028. That would more than double current capacity and represents genuine progress. But it's progress from a very low base. China will add that much capacity in about five weeks.
The $160 billion annual financing gap remains. The concentration problem persists, 79% of African solar in just two countries (AFSIA). And 600 million Africans still lack reliable power, accounting for 83% of the world's unelectrified population (African Development Bank).
What's emerging is two Africas: one where solar is working (Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Algeria) and one where it's still struggling despite the need being greatest (Nigeria, Ghana, and much of Sub-Saharan Africa). The first group has functioning grids, creditworthy utilities, and stable regulatory environments. The second doesn't.
As John van Zuylen, CEO of AFSIA, noted: "With multiple projects already announced and at various stages of development in several countries that are new to solar, we may witness a more distributed spread of solar in Africa in the years to come." The question is whether distributed becomes truly distributed, or remains concentrated in the same handful of markets.
The $160 Billion Questions
Can Mission 300's $58 billion in committed financing unlock the remaining $160 billion per year needed from private investors?
Can blended finance models scale from 50 million people to 600 million?
Can Egypt's manufacturing build the local supply chains that reduce costs and currency risk?
Can off-grid solar growth in Nigeria and similar markets substitute for the grid infrastructure investment they desperately need, or will it forever remain a workaround rather than a solution?
The next five years will answer whether Africa's solar take-off becomes a genuine breakthrough or remains what Ember cautiously describes as "the first evidence" of something that might become much larger.
The resources are there, 60% of the world's best solar potential. The technology works. The financing is starting to flow. Manufacturing is being localized. New models are proving viable.
What remains to be seen is whether the execution can match the ambition, and whether the models that work in Egypt and South Africa can be adapted to the 50 countries still waiting in the dark.
About Les Africanistes: We provide market intelligence and business insights for companies operating across African markets, combining local expertise with global investment perspectives.
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Sources:
Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA). (2025). Africa Solar Outlook 2025.
African Development Bank (AfDB). (2025). Mission 300 Initiative and project announcements.
Ember. (2025). The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa.
Global Solar Council (GSC). (2025). Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025-2028.
World Bank. (2024-2025). Energy access and climate finance estimates.
Climate Policy Initiative. (2025). Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa/Nigeria.
Drawdown. (2025). How can we finance a fair energy transition in Africa?
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